lightning

Four years ago on LJ

Just after the last presidential election, someone posted this.  I have put in what I gather actually happened from looking around online:

1,460 days until the next election.
In the near term, expect:

* Finance. The stock market will stop recovering for the next few months until the Obama policies are fully defined. The stock market is likely to fall a bit further because the Obama victory hasn't been fully realized in lower stock prices yet.


Reality: About 2 weeks after Obama took office, the downward crash that the stock market had been in since early 2008 stopped (at about the same as the low point reached during the Bush administration), reversed, and has been climbing more or less steadily since then, now sitting at levels only ever exceeded for a few brief weeks before the tumble in 2008, and which look to be more sustainable.

* Economy. Short term disaster as Obama drains money from the economy. Longer term, the rich will re-implement the correct manuevers to shield income, and the middle class will pay higher taxes for the next four years.

Reality: Far from draining money from the economy, Obama has spent less than any president in the last 40 years, and has implemented stimulus programs that have given jobs to hundreds of thousands of people while improving the infrastructure.  Much of the job loss that began well before the last election has been reversed and the trend is continuing sustainably, though there are still challenges.
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-22/commentary/31802270_1_spending-federal-budget-drunken-sailor
"After adjusting for inflation, spending under Obama is falling at a 1.4% annual pace — the first decline in real spending since the early 1970s, when Richard Nixon was retreating from the quagmire in Vietnam."

* Security. After a year's time for Obama to dismantle US security, and another year to plan and launch an attack, expect a terrorists to strike against the US.


Realty: This is complete scaremongering bullshit.  Nothing even vaguely approaching this has happened or was even hinted at either before or after this prediction was made, this sort of stuff came straight out of the fever dreams of fear merchants who had nothing REAL to scare people with.  Internal security is as good as it ever has been and our troops are safer and more sensibly deployed than they had been in the previous administration.

* War. Expect a bold aggressive move by the Iranians around the time of the inauguration. Expect a sharp increase in attacks against the US in Iraq.

Reality: Didn't happen, and didn't happen.  We're essentially completely out of Iraq, though when we were there both civilian and US military casualties were nowhere near as high as they were for long periods of time during the previous administration.  The surge ordered by Bush was continued and this time ramped down sensibly and successfully.
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/

* Obama spent over half a billion dollars more than McCain to eke out a marginal popular vote in his favor. Don't expect any changes to the campaign finance system.

Reality: I don't think the president is capable of making changes to the campaign finance system, and even if he tried I don't think they would go through.  Members of the legislature on all sides have a lot of interest in keeping things as they are.  The Republican party has turned into a frothing loony willing to stop or destroy anything to keep Obama from doing anything good.  They have filibustered things that they themselves championed in previous years simply because they now were supported by Democrats.  Luckily the majority of Americans see through this and even though Obama is currently easily outpacing Romney for donations, it doesn't really seem necessary as the crown of the GOP is rapidly approaching the status of "unelectable."
Reality: The president isn't capable of doing most things promised/threaten during a campaign.